Do GLP-1s signal a worrying time for confectioners?

Led by health concerns, the GLP-1 market is anticipated to surpass $100 billion by 2023, ​JP Morgan insights​ reveal. Furthermore, according to a Goldman Sachs​ ​study​, by 2028, an estimated 70 million consumers in the US alone are expected to have tried GLP-1 medicines.  

Glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1)​ is a type of medication for treating type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and obesity. They have entered today’s consciousness with the emergence and rise of Ozempic and semaglutides, following media attention and reported celebrity use. 

GLP-1 medication use rose by more than 700% between 2019 and 2023 in the US. These results, detailed in ​a 2024 research study in the British Medical Journal (BMJ),​ ​relate to US patients without diabetes but with overweight or obesity who started glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RA).  

How do GLP-1 medications influence food trends?​ 

Food and supplements are tapping into GLP-1 medications by releasing nutrition products and advice on vitamins and supplements to complement consumers’ weight management.  

“Users of GLP-1 medication tend to consume healthier food since taking the medication,” Lu Ann Williams, Global Insights director at Innova Market Insights, says, sharing their research results into GLP-1 medication, Ozempic.  

According to Innova’s Ozempic and UPF Survey 2024, US shoppers seek healthier food and beverage (F&B) categories after starting GLP-1-based weight loss medication. Almost two-thirds (65%) of US respondents who were users of GLP-1-based weight loss medication said they ate more healthy foods after starting it.  

Fruits and vegetables is the top food category consumers bought after starting to use GLP-1 based weight loss medication, Innova finds, with more than half (51%) purchasing these foods. Fish, whole plant foods, white meat and supplements are among the top five foods popular with consumers taking GLP-1 medication.  

Fruitful commercial opportunities in food…and what that means for confectionery​ 

In a nod to the rise of GLP-1 medication and accompanying nutrition’s impact on the wider food space, the ​New York Times details how its effect is entering the retail space​. Supplement stores like Vitamin Shoppe and GNC are re-envisioning their retail strategies to appeal to consumers taking GLP-1 medications and those interested in them and accompanying nutrition advice. These physical stores are redesigning their marketing displays and training retail employees on how best to help advise shoppers on managing GLP-1 medication’s side effects.  

Sweeteners on the market have the potential to see success among consumers looking for healthier sugar-reduced alternatives, too. ​NutraEx Food​ adopts “plug and play” technology with its sugar reduction solution.  

“We have also seen M&A activity of food manufacturers acquiring health brands to diversify its portfolio to align with consumers’ evolving preference, not just to mitigate the impact of GLP-1 drugs on sales, but as consumers gravitate toward more health-conscious options,” says Ling Lin, Client Solutions Executive at Clarkston Consulting. 

GLP-1 drugs also have the potential to open up various applications in F&B formulations. “This could give opportunities for GLP-1 to become a new innovative health claim in the confectionery space,” says Williams.  

According to Innova’s research, GLP-1 is poised to impact the market in profound ways, and large players are already impacting their strategies. Confectionery giant Nestlé is tapping into responding to consumers’ demand for GLP-1 nutrition-led platforms. Earlier this year, Nestlé launched two GLP-1 nutrition initiatives in as many months. In May 2024, it released Vital Pursuit, a food range targeting GLP-1 weight loss medication users aimed at supporting them to manage their medication and nutrition. Vital Pursuit has been formulated with rich protein, fibre and key nutrient levels and will enter the US market by the end of 2024.  

Then in June 2024, Nestlé’s Health Science arm followed this release with a new web platform, GLP-1 Nutrition. It’s designed to give comprehensive nutritional advice to consumers looking to manage their weight, including those on GLP-1 medications.  

Navigating potential sweet sales slumps ​ 

“As consumers are becoming more health conscious, this could lead to a potential decrease in consumption of confectionery,” Williams suggests. “The rise of GLP-1 drugs will most likely impact sales for confectionery and snack manufacturers, although many factors contribute to the sector’s weak performance,” adds Lin. 

But this opens up new opportunities for confectionery companies to tap into better-for-you healthier sweet alternatives that lean into the rise of GLP-1 medications. “This could also open the door for innovation in health claims and functional ingredients within this space,” Williams adds.  

“Confectioners could invest in reformulating their products to reduce sugar and incorporate functional ingredients, such as fibre and protein, to appeal to consumers,” Lin says. Snack manufacturers could also look into smaller pack sizes for those consumers looking to manage their intake more effectively. 

Functional confectionery​ is not only relevant for consumers taking GLP-1 medications but also for those prioritising nutrition. “Even for general consumers, health and sugar reduction are big interests when it comes to F&B consumption,” says Williams. According to Innova, between 2019 and 2023, there was a 10% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) increase in the number of global products released with a sugar reduction claim. 

In addition, there is ​a growing trend on social media​ where consumers are testing their blood sugar levels before and after consuming food, along with eating food that can prevent glucose spikes. “This shows a rise in interest in keeping blood sugar levels stable,” says Williams.